See what they say about the Beavs.
I think the last time I felt this calm going into a Civil War game was when Rich Brooks was coach. Obviously I'm being a naive idiot. But it's not just me. I had a hard time finding anyone who said OSU would pull off the upset.
Might pull it off? Could? Maybe? Sure. But no one wanted to actually put their name next to such a wild prediction.
Even computer simulation games especially liked Oregon. KVAL-TV in Eugene had the following story:
Computer model predicts Oregon Civil War: 'The math is simple'
EUGENE, Ore. - The computer loves Oregon.
After simulating the Oregon Civil War game over 10,000 times, The AccuScore computer model predicts the Ducks would beat the Beavers at least 8,300 times.But it only takes once to send the Ducks to the Bowl Championship Series game for the first time ever - or crown this year's Beavers as the biggest spoilers in Oregon football history.
AccuScore's model, which attempts to forecast sporting events like weather computers forecast the weather, gives the Beavs a glimmer of hope - hey, in 1,300 of those 10,000 simulations, Oregon State pulls off an upset.
But Zach Rosenfield, college football analyst with AccuScore, doesn't see that happening.
"Oregon State’s 2010 season has been a complete disaster and it shows when you look at the numbers," Rosenfield said. "Nobody thought the transition from Canfield to Katz would have caused such a drop off, but the numbers are staggering.
"This season, when an Oregon State quarterback drops back to pass, 12 percent of those plays end up in either a sack or interception. That number is up 4.5 percent against last year when Canfield was the quarterback," Rosenfield said. "The fallout from the negative plays have really hurt the Beavers to have manageable situations and run the ball effectively. Jacquizz Rodgers is averaging a full 10 yards less a game in 2010 vs. 2009 and the passing game had not made up the difference with 1,000 yards less production this season vs. last.
"The fallout from the decreased productivity means that opposing teams are getting extra possessions. Oregon State only punted 51 times in last year’s 13-game season, but have already punted 57 times in 11 games in 2010.
"The punting number really stand out and is a key catalyst to why AccuScore has Oregon winning 84 percent of simulations by an average margin of 20 points. The Ducks have have either scored a touchdown or attempted a field in goal in an astounding 56 percent of their possessions this season when they are not trying to run out the clock.
"The math is simple: more possessions means Oregon will either score or flip the field, which is trouble for an Oregon State team that is having trouble moving the ball and putting up points."
That's as good as any analysis I've heard. Yet, it just doesn't seem right to get ready for the Civil War without having SOMETHING to worry about. And the Oregonian's Aaron Fentress finds it.
OSU's best weapon is NOT Quizz Rogers. Oh sure, he's going to gain his 99.7 yards per game. But OSU wins and loses by QB Ryan Katz's arm. If he's connecting long down the middle, the Beavs are having a good day.
Following are some excerpts from Fentress' article:
That objective could depend on the right arm of quarterback Ryan Katz and his ability to go down field, something the Ducks (11-0, 8-0) are mindful of.
“That's a huge concern,” Oregon coach Chip Kelly said. “We know [wide receiver] Jordan Bishop can run and Ryan Katz has an outstanding arm. That's something, especially off the play-action stuff with [running back] Quizz [Rodgers], because everybody is really trying to shut down Quizz, that is a huge concern.”
Given last week’s performance by Oregon’s pass defense, the Ducks should be concerned.
Oregon handled the Wildcats 48-29 at Autzen Stadium but repeatedly lost track of Arizona wide receivers to the tune of 448 yards passing and three touchdowns for quarterback Nick Foles.
That's what makes it particularly troublesome. Oregon's pass defense was pretty awful last week. Cliff Harris had probably his worst day this season. Thanks to some miscommunication with the safety, his man escaped for not one but two long easy receptions for TD's.
In addition, he fumbled one punt return and tried to reverse field and lost yardage on another. It looked like he was trying too hard. Let's hope he had a good practice and got all of that out of his system so he can give Katz the bad day on Saturday.
Fentress finishes this way:
To be fair, it’s not as if Oregon has provided haven for opposing receivers to run free. The Ducks rank second in the conference interceptions (16) and tied for first in fewest touchdown passes allowed (11).
Still, Oregon knows that Katz will be looking to exploit potential weaknesses exposed by Arizona.
“He throws a good deep ball,” Boyett said of Katz. “They like to take a lot of shots down field. They’ve shown signs of trying to attack the secondary in previous games. They want to throw a lot of deep combination routes. But at the same time they throw a lot in the short passing game to try and get their offense going.”
The Salem Statesman Journal is less kind in this assessment of Katz:
First-year starter Ryan Katz has a strong arm and provides another dimension with his running ability. The tools are there, but Katz remains a work in progress.
Much like the Beavers inconsistent season, Katz has been up and down. He had his worst game of the campaign in last week's 38-0 drubbing at Stanford, with three interceptions and a lost fumble.
Katz has produced better numbers than recent first-year starters for the Beavers, a distinguished group that includes Sean Canfield, Lyle Moevao, Matt Moore and Derek Anderson. He has completed 60.3 percent of his passes for 2,177 yards and 16 touchdowns with eight interceptions, and ranks sixth in the conference in passing efficiency. Katz has run for 224 yards and two scores, but counting sacks he has a net 17 yards on the ground.
The problem with Oregon State's dependence on its passing game is their offensive line. With one freshman and a first year walk-on as starters (And the freshman may be too hurt to play this Saturday.), they're just not as experienced this year. The result is the Beavers are ranked ninth in the Pac-10 in sacks allowed at 32. Look for the Ducks to build on that number substantially.
Bottom line: If Katz doesn't have a Nick Foles kind of day against the Ducks, Oregon will win handily.
SO COACH, WHY DO YOU REALLY WANT TO WIN THE NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP?
To the victor goes the spoils. And if you lead your team to the Rose Bowl your first year and hopefully the National Championship the second, you should be pretty spoiled upon, right? Coach Chip Kelly's pay incentives are already kicking in according to this article from the Portland Examiner.
Chip Kelly stands to get giant payday if Oregon beats Oregon State
Things are starting to get crazy in Oregon as people begin to wake up from their dream, pinch themselves, and realize that it's a reality: the Ducks are one - one - win away from the first national championship berth in the history of the football program. And although he's surely put it in the back of his mind, the win would come with an extra bonus for head coach Chip Kelly.
According to USA Today, Kelly will secure approximately $4.3 million if Oregon beats the rival Beavers to make it to BCS National Championship game in Glendale, Arizona in January.
A win would also give Kelly the opportunity to make an additional $250,000 to be paid if the Ducks win the national championship.
Wrote USA Today's Steve Berkowitz: "Kelly's possible payday is illustrative of the lengths schools go to reward and retain coaches, even amid difficult budgetary times."
Kelly is in his second year as the head coach of the Oregon Ducks, and he's currently 21-3 in that position - the best start any Oregon football coach has had in the program's 117-year history.
Kelly signed a 6-year extension back in September, worth about $20.5 million, after making $1.5 million last season.
He's currently making $2.4 million this year, but has already secured an additional $175,000 in bonuses.
The $4.3 million would be a part of a built-in one-year extension that kicks in only if the Ducks win 12 games in a single season and get into a BCS bowl game. In other words, if Oregon beats OSU on Saturday, an extra year worth $4.3 million is added onto the end of Kelly's current contract.
Worth every penny.
In fact this entire season has been worth every cent and moment, obviously. Did you ever think that the Ducks would be in a position where a loss tomorrow would mean they would have to settle -- SETTLE I said -- for the Rose Bowl?
NOW IS THE TIME WE DANCE!!!
Do yourself a favor, Duck fan. Don't hold your breath until tomorrow when there are reasons to celebrate today. As the Beavers wear there throw-up uniforms to hearken back to a team in 1967 that only dead people remember, let us celebrate this season today with a video from 1974.
You know the drill. CRANK THE VOLUME. STAND ON YOUR CHAIRS.
CELEBRAAAAAAAAAAAAATE!!!!
Civil War Gametime 12:30 Pacific on ABC.
Also don't forget ESPN's College Gameday will be in Corvallis tomorrow at 7a.m.
Tune in to see if more Ducks than Beavers show up.
--KB
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